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☆ Morgan Stanley says consumers looking for 30% discounts on holiday shopping before buying, sell retail stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-09 | by ( Pia Singh | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Morgan Stanley highlighted several companies that are prepared to withstand — and even benefit from —consumers' shifting preferences this holiday season, as inflationary pressures dampen shoppers' budgets this quarter. According to Morgan Stanley's proprietary monthly survey, most holiday shoppers are looking to see 30% discounts, on average, before they begin spending this holiday season. A strong holiday season should benefit the entire airline industry given the ongoing demand for air travel among consumers across income brackets, according to Morgan Stanley. "Durable goods spending has slowed and that is expected to continue into the holiday season," Wilson said in the note. Toys could emerge as "relative winner" this season as they become a more top-of-mind purchase for parents during the holiday season, analyst Megan Alexander wrote.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, Michael Wilson, Morgan, They're, Ravi Shanker, Wilson, Amazon's, Brian Nowak, Lauren Schenk, Chewy, Morgan Stanley's, Alex Straton, Megan Alexander Organizations: Consumers, Delta Airlines, American Airlines and United Airlines, Southwest Airlines, Alaska Air Group, Apparel, Urban Outfitters, Abercrombie, Fitch Locations: Delta, U.S

☆ Among New York’s Sidewalk Sideshows, 2 Goats and a Story of Despair
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-25 | by ( Michael Wilson | More About Michael Wilson | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The short, slender woman clutches two leashes in her right hand. At their ends are two goats, Marshmallow and Brownie. The three of them stand in the human jet stream of Rockefeller Center, and people stop to take pictures or pet the animals. Only in New York, they say. A young man in a tuxedo, part of a raucous wedding party, stops, grins, and asks what brought her here.

Persons: Beverly Shaw, “, ”, David Shaw Organizations: Rockefeller Center Locations: New York, Indiana

☆ S&P 500 rally in Q4 "more likely than not" despite headwinds - Morgan Stanley
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., August 15, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsOct 16 (Reuters) - A rally in the S&P 500 in the fourth quarter of 2023 "is more likely than not", Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson said in a note. Morgan Stanley maintains its 3,900 year-end price target for the S&P 500 and believes the best way to position is a barbell of defensive growth stocks that have stable earnings, and late-cycle cyclical stocks such as energy. Stocks came under selling pressure last week as investors rushed to Treasuries after a surprise attack by militant group Hamas against Israel, but S&P 500 still managed to eke out some gains. "The fact that stocks rallied early in the week emboldened the view that equity markets could withstand another exogenous shock," Wilson said.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson, Wilson, Morgan Stanley, Morgan Stanley's, Stocks, Shubham Batra Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Israel, Bengaluru

☆ NFL roundup: Puka Nacua, Rams outlast Colts in OT
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +11 min

The Rams went 75 yards on their overtime drive with Nacua scoring his first career TD on a third-down play. Kyren Williams scored two first-quarter touchdowns and had 103 yards on 25 carries for the Rams (2-2). Tua Tagovailoa threw for 282 yards, one touchdown and one interception on 25-for-35 passing for the Dolphins (3-1). Buccaneers 26, Saints 9Baker Mayfield threw three touchdown passes and the Tampa Bay defense did not allow a touchdown in a win against host New Orleans. Josh Dobbs completed 28 of 41 passes for 265 yards and two touchdowns, both to Michael Wilson, for the Cardinals (1-3).

Persons: Matthew Stafford, Trevor Ruszkowski, Puka Nacua, Nacua, Kyren Williams, Stafford, Anthony Richardson, Drew Ogletree, Michael Pittman, Richardson, Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Allen, Diggs, De'Von Achane, Tua Tagovailoa, Wil Lutz, Sean Payton, Russell Wilson, Marvin Mims Jr, Lutz's, Justin Fields, Jake Elliott, Sam Howell's, Jahan Dotson, Joey Slye's, Jalen, Brown, Howell, Trevor Lawrence, Darious Williams, Lawrence, Williams, Brandon McManus, Bijan Robinson, Desmond Ridder, Justin Jefferson, Kirk Cousins, Alexander Mattison, Sam Franklin Jr, Bryce Young, Harrison Smith, Young, D.J, Wonnum, Lamar Jackson, Brandon Stephens, Geno Stone, Kyle Hamilton, Mark Andrews, Jackson, Dorian Thompson, Robinson, Deshaun Watson, Myles Garrett, Stroud, Nico Collins, Watt, Collins, Kenny Pickett, Mitch Trubisky, Baker Mayfield, Mayfield, Cade Otton, Trey Palmer, Thompkins, Alvin Kamara, Kamara, Derek Carr, Blake Grupe, Derrick Henry, Ryan Tannehill, Joe Burrow, Tee Higgins, Cam Taylor, Britt, Khalil Mack, Justin Herbert, Herbert, Mack, Derrick Thomas, Aidan O'Connell, Jimmy Garoppolo, Davante Adams, Josh Jacobs, Leighton Vander Esch, DaRon Bland, CeeDee Lamb, Hunter Luepke, Dak Prescott, Mac Jones, Jones, Bailey Zappe, Christian McCaffrey, McCaffrey, Brock Purdy, Josh Dobbs, Michael Wilson Organizations: Los Angeles Rams, Indianapolis Colts, Lucas Oil, Rams, BYU, Colts, Bills, Dolphins, Buffalo, Miami, Broncos, Bears, Chicago, Denver, Eagles, Philadelphia, Washington, Jaguars, Falcons, Jacksonville, Atlanta, Vikings, Panthers, Minnesota, Carolina, The Vikings, Ravens, Browns, Cleveland, Texans, Steelers, Houston, Pittsburgh, Stroud, Buccaneers, Saints, Tampa, New, Bucs, Bengals, Cincinnati, The Titans, Titans, Chargers, Raiders, Las Vegas, NFL, Cowboys, Patriots, Dallas, The Cowboys, 49ers, Cardinals, Arizona Locations: Indianapolis , Indiana, USA, Miami, Orchard Park, N.Y, Washington, Atlanta, London, Charlotte, N.C, Carolina, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Tennessee, Nashville, Cincinnati, Los Angeles, Inglewood , Calif, New England, Arlington , Texas, Francisco, Santa Clara, Calif

☆ U.S. stocks may start to question economic resilience, says Morgan Stanley
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

FILE PHOTO: People are seen on Wall Street outside the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., March 19, 2021. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsAug 21 (Reuters) - The S&P 500 will likely struggle to make more headway after rallying almost 14% so far this year as investors start to question the sustainability of the U.S. economy's resilience, Morgan Stanley equity strategists said. One reason is that a "sell-the news" mentality has taken hold following second-quarter earnings, potentially slowing price momentum, said Morgan Stanley strategists, led by Michael Wilson. "While limited in downside magnitude, this recent price action is a change and suggests stocks may be starting to question the sustainability of the economic resiliency we experienced in the first half of the year," said Wilson. Wilson also sees fading tailwinds from excess savings among consumers, which leaves consumer discretionary stocks vulnerable.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Morgan Stanley, Michael Wilson, Wilson, Marc Giannoni, Susan Mathew, Saumyadeb Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Treasury, Barclays, Credit Suisse, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Bengaluru

☆ Threats, Beatings, Extortion: The Violent World of Fire-Truck Chasers
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-03 | by ( Michael Wilson | More About Michael Wilson | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Right behind them are workers in a little-known industry who offer traumatized homeowners what is known as emergency mitigation services. He dove into this hyper-intense new job, he said, chasing fires and the promise of a straight paycheck. His boss had taught him how to immediately find the homeowner in a crowd of people outside a burning home: Look at everyone’s feet. “Everyone got out?” His boss taught him that, too: Act concerned. Never ask how they’re doing.

Persons: Jatiek Smith, ”, They’re Locations: Brooklyn, Queens, Staten Island, Sheepshead

☆ Oppenheimer strategist projects S&P 500 will eclipse record high by year end
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-01 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 20, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo License this content on Reuters ConnectNEW YORK, Aug 1 (Reuters) - Oppenheimer Asset Management on Tuesday projected the S&P 500 would rise above its record high by year end, the latest Wall Street firm to grow more bullish on the outlook for stocks following the market's rally this year. Oppenheimer lifted its year-end price target for the S&P 500 to 4,900 from the 4,400 projection it set in December, Chief Investment Strategist John Stoltzfus said in a note. The S&P 500 record closing high is 4,796.56, reached on Jan. 3, 2022, while the index's intraday record is 4,818.62, which it hit on Jan. 4, 2022. Oppenheimer's more bullish view comes after Citigroup (C.N) recently boosted its S&P 500 price target by 15%, saying the more upbeat view reflected increased probability of an economic soft landing.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Oppenheimer, John Stoltzfus, Stoltzfus, Morgan Stanley, Michael Wilson, Lewis Krauskopf, Noel Randewich, Chris Reese Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Reuters, Oppenheimer, Management, Citigroup, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, San Francisco

☆ The A-Bomb, Selma, Broadway: She Saw It All and Knew Everyone
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-12 | by ( Michael Wilson | More About Michael Wilson | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

What if this process was too far along to stop, and she’d let her friend down? Lawyers in housing court deal with all manner of distraught men and women facing evictions with no ready answers, no job, no income. Here was this client, Sheila Sullivan, and her friend with an organized stack of documents drawing a clear line from problem to solution. The lawyer looked at the two women facing her. Ms. Sullivan remembers that day in 2013 when the new neighbor next door rang her buzzer because she had locked herself out.

Persons: Dupuy, she’d, Sullivan, Sheila Sullivan

☆ When the Water Rushed In, Help Rushed Over
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-10 | by ( Michael Wilson | More About Michael Wilson | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

But terrified residents watching water climb in their homes had no way of knowing when or if help would arrive. It was like a river had been diverted, running now through the middle of the four small buildings that are the Weyant Green Apartments in the village of Highland Falls. Younger relatives were trying to help, but the nearby bridge was covered by several feet of rushing water, and they couldn’t get to the property. Pat Flynn, a former mayor of Highland Falls, made it over in his Explorer with a friend worried for her mother. He saw older men and women — the ones who could stand — cowering in their doorways as water rose up their legs.

Persons: Dagaev, Younger, Pat Flynn Locations: Hudson, New York, Highland Falls, Highland

☆ 2 Newark Firefighters Brought Years of Service to Their Final Fire
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( Michael Wilson | More About Michael Wilson | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

When flames raced through a huge cargo ship in Port Newark in New Jersey on Wednesday, it was not some specialized nautical team that ventured into its blazing upper decks. It was city firefighters, whose last job might have been rushing to a burning house or fallen wires, or treating someone with chest pains or helping a woman in labor. “Regular guys” — that’s what people often call firefighters who perish on the job. Two men from Newark, Augusto Acabou, 45, known as Augie, and Wayne Brooks Jr., 49, ran onto that burning ship and didn’t come back. Both regular guys, yes, but each specifically exceptional.

Persons: Augusto Acabou, Augie, Wayne Brooks Jr, didn’t Locations: Port Newark, New Jersey, Newark, Portuguese

Such an explosion of migrants, which is estimated to cost $4.3 billion by July 2024, would test any American city. In New York, the arrivals were met by a system that had already been under pressure because of factors of the city’s own making. More homeless people compete for homes, until the shelter becomes the home. It was met by aid workers with blankets and the handshakes and cheers of a city that prided itself on stepping up. Shelters opened faster than pop-up restaurants, more than 170 since last spring, sometimes overnight.

Persons: ”, Adolfo Abreu, — Organizations: Vocal Locations: New York, Texas

☆ Where Housing Prices Have Crashed and Billions in Wealth Have Vanished
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-19 | by ( Natasha Frost | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Michael Wilson was hopeful when he put his three-bedroom house up for sale: Over a dozen would-be buyers came to the initial showing. Offer after offer fell through because the prospective buyers were unable to sell their homes. Over the last 18 months, homeowners and investors have lost billions of dollars in wealth after prices that spiked during the Covid pandemic started plunging as mortgage rates also soared. “If we listed it, say, two months before we originally did, it would have literally sold the next day,” Mr. Wilson said. He and his wife, Jade, might finally have found a buyer for their three-bedroom house in Te Awamutu, a pretty North Island town of 13,000 people.

Persons: Michael Wilson, ” Mr, Wilson, Jade Locations: New Zealand, Te Awamutu

☆ Orange Skies and Burning Eyes as Smoke Shrouds New York City
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-07 | by ( Michael Wilson | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Outside in Times Square, the scene was more or less normal, with tourists coming and going — although everyone seemed to be talking about the same thing. Rishabh Mehta, 27, visiting the city with his wife and his parents from India, expressed disappointment at the turn of events. We can’t walk long distances. If we keep walking long distances, we get tired early.”Nearby, Rauf Rahimov, 27, a pedicab driver outside Central Park, reclined in the back of his cab where the passengers would sit, if there were any. In Brooklyn, a food deliveryman, Mohammad Uddin, said he was raised in Bangladesh, a country with a persistently unhealthy air quality.

Persons: Jodie Comer, Rishabh Mehta, “, Rauf Rahimov, ”, Mohammad Uddin Organizations: Broadway Locations: India, Central, reclined, Brooklyn, Bangladesh

☆ Morgan Stanley sees slump in US earnings in 2023, sharp rebound next year
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

June 5 (Reuters) - Morgan Stanley warns of a 16% drop in profit for S&P 500 companies this year, followed by a sharp rebound in 2024 when analysts say the Federal Reserve's policy will become more accommodative. Strategists led by Michael Wilson said in a note on Monday that they expect earnings to rebound sharply, with a 23% jump next year. The Wall Street bank warned that the EPS of S&P companies could slip to $185 from $195 in 2023 before recovering to $239 next year. Morgan Stanley predicted the index to rebound to 4,200 levels in 2024 while keeping its 2023-end target unchanged at 3,900. A slew of positive news, with expectations of a Fed pivot, persistent improvement in liquidity, and AI-related tailwinds to mega-cap names such as Nvidia Corp (NVDA.O), have buoyed indexes so far, Morgan Stanley said.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, Michael Wilson, Wilson, Roshan Abraham, Dhanya Ann Thoppil Organizations: Nvidia Corp, Thomson Locations: Bengaluru

☆ Morgan Stanley strategist Mike Wilson says don't be fooled, this is not a new bull market
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The S & P 500 's range breakout last week may not signal a bull market ahead, Morgan Stanley warned. But he said that isn't enough to confirm a new bull market given there are signals warning otherwise. "Rather than a short squeeze, the market was driven by the biggest winners as more market participants convinced themselves the next bull market may have begun and they can't afford to miss it." .SPX 6M line The S & P 500's last six months Market fundamentals also aren't helping the bull case, he said. Excluding technology stocks, the S & P 500's price-to-earnings multiple is 18 times, still putting it in the top 15% of historical levels.

☆ Trading playbook: Morgan Stanley on what worked during prior debt ceiling negotiations
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Morgan Stanley Research compiled data to examine sector performance before and after a debt ceiling negotiations in 1996, 2011 and 2013. The sector climbed 4% in the month that followed the last three debt ceiling negotiations on average. Tech added 8% and 11% three months and six months after previous debt ceiling negotiations, respectively. "Ultimately, prior comps are limited and do not provide a clear answer, in our opinion," Morgan Stanley equity strategist Michael Wilson said. Wilson highlighted the utilities sector as one of the better performers heading into debt ceiling negotiations, before a deal was yielded.

☆ How Two Men’s Disparate Paths Crossed in a Killing on the F Train
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-07 | by ( Michael Wilson | Andy Newman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

It was a Monday afternoon and a 30-year-old man was ranting on an F train headed through Manhattan. He was a regular on the subway, once a gifted Michael Jackson impersonator, but he was also troubled. City workers had tried to help him for years. After the military, he had dropped out of college, posting online about feeling “completely unfulfilled,” and now he was looking for a bartending job in the city. He shouted to others on the train that he was hungry, that he didn’t care about returning to jail, that he was ready to die, witnesses said.

☆ He Bombed the Nazis. 75 Years Later, the Nightmares Began.
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-30 | by ( Michael Wilson | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The nightmare shook the old man, who was now in his late 90s. Since his wife, Alice, died more than 10 years earlier, he had settled into a quiet rhythm, alone with his jazz records and his painting. He feared he had suffered a seizure, but his vital signs were normal. His adult daughters, Emily and Abby, were also worried. Their father had always been so steady and predictable and was never prone to this sort of profound disquiet.

☆ Here are 3 important reasons why stocks shouldn't be rallying in the wake of bank bailouts, and why bond investors are right to be bearish, according to Morgan Stanley
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( Marley Jay | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Stocks have risen as investors conclude that authorities will prevent a bank crisis from spreading. He says that tighter credit conditions and the economy will weaken, and stocks look expensive. While bank stocks are still down, the rest of the market is collectively higher since the crisis started. But even if that's true, Morgan Stanley says investors are far too optimistic right now. In short, Wilson wrote that investors who see conditions in markets right now as positive for stocks, especially for tech, are making a mistake.

NEW YORK, March 21 (Reuters) - Worries over the banking crisis are boosting disparate assets, with traditional safe-havens such as gold, Treasuries and money markets seeing high demand along with more speculative instruments such as tech stocks and bitcoin. The gains have come alongside big moves in assets traditionally perceived as safe-havens during uncertain times. Yields on shorter-dated Treasuries, which move inversely to prices, saw a historic drop last week, while money market funds notched their biggest inflows since April 2020 in the week to March 15, Refinitiv Lipper data showed. Well, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is down about 60 basis points from early March,” said Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Advisory Services, in a Monday report. Reporting by Lewis Krauskopf and David Randall; Editing by Ira Iosebashvili and Leslie AdlerOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Analysis: Rebounding U.S. dollar a growing headache for investors
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-01 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

NEW YORK, March 1 (Reuters) - Investors reeling from the recent volatility in global financial markets are eyeing another potential worry: a rebounding dollar. MSCI’s index for emerging market stocks (.MSCIEF) has slipped 8% from its January highs, while the MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index (.MIEM00000CUS) is down 3% from its early February high. "A stronger dollar poses a problem for risk assets," said Lauren Goodwin, economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments. The dollar's recent rebound has weighed on various risk assetsBecause of the dollar's central role in the global financial system, its fluctuations have widespread repercussions. Whether the dollar continues its rebound will depend in part on investors' perceptions of how much higher the Fed will need to raise interest rates.

☆ Top Wall Street strategists and money managers are warning that the risk-reward ratio for stocks is at its worst since the 2008 crisis. Here are 10 places they say to put your money instead with furth
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-01 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

In other words, the risk-reward ratio for stocks — or the equity risk premium — has to make sense, or else why take the risk by investing in them? 10 places to investDespite the lackluster outlook for stocks, strategists still say there are plenty of investing opportunities. The Vanguard US Quality Factor ETF (VFQY) and the Fidelity MSCI Consumer Staples Index ETF (FSTA) offer exposure to the above areas of the market. This supports our preference for emerging markets, and our preference for Germany and consumer stocks in Europe. Within defensives, we like consumer staples over healthcare, which we downgraded this month.

☆ A renowned market bear who called the dot-com crash warns stock valuations are at 'nosebleed' levels — and suggests that tech stocks could be the market's 'Achilles' heel'
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Societe Generale's Albert Edwards warns stock valuations are at 'nosebleed' levels. Historically, when yields are low, higher stock valuations are accepted as investors seek yield. But currently high yields in the Treasury market mean stock valuations, on a historical basis, should be lower. Societe GeneraleEdwards said the drop in long-term growth expectations could be assigned to a deteriorating outlook for tech stocks. Societe Generale"An expensive US CAPE ratio has long been justified by the US market's far higher weighting in tech," he said.

☆ Analysis: U.S. stocks’ early-year rally is melting away as Treasury yields surge
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

NEW YORK, Feb 22 (Reuters) - Cracks are widening in an early-year rally in stocks, as rising Treasury yields bolster the allure of bonds and skew equity valuations. Stocks are still sitting on sizeable year-to-date gains, though some of their rally has melted away in recent days. The S&P 500 (.SPX) is down 4.4% from its recent highs, but remains up 4.1% year-to-date. That is a "death zone" that makes the "risk-reward very poor" for stocks, strategist Michael Wilson wrote. To be sure, bullish investors might have history on their side, thanks in part to January’s hefty 6.2% gain for the S&P 500.

☆ U.S. companies face more pain as expected ‘earnings recession’ looms
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-13 | by ( Caroline Valetkevitch | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Expectations for U.S. earnings to decline in the first and second quarter come amid weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter results for 2022, which Credit Suisse estimates will be the worst earnings season outside of a recession in 24 years. With fourth-quarter 2022 earnings estimated to have fallen from a year ago, a subsequent decline in the first quarter of 2023 would put the S&P 500 into a so-called earnings recession, a back-to-back decline in earnings that hasn't occurred since COVID-19 blasted corporate results in 2020. Fourth-quarter results are in already from 344 of the S&P 500 companies, and the quarter's earnings are estimated at this point to have fallen 2.8% from the year-ago period, according to IBES data from Refinitiv. Most strategists expect little improvement for the season, and analysts now forecast S&P 500 earnings falling 3.7% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2023 and 3.1% for the second quarter. The S&P 500 notched its biggest percentage weekly decline since mid-December last week, though the index is up about 7% for the year to date.

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